Looking at the aggregated MDI market in 2018, it can only be described as tragic. Over the whole year, MDI prices showed a sharp decline except for two small rebounds. Prices fell from 27300 yuan in early January to 11 400 yuan in late December, a drop of more than 58%.

Market participants believe that the aggregated MDI market in 2019 is still not optimistic, and the release of capacity and inadequate demand will continue to constrain the market.

Li Hong, Marketing Manager of Zhonghai Chemical Group Co., Ltd.: The overall market turbulence is downward

At the beginning of 2018, the United States experienced severe cold weather. The severe cold climate has also had a serious impact on the chemical industry, which has tightened the supply of aggregated MDI and maintained high prices. In the domestic market, Wanhua Ningbo MDI Phase I and Phase II installations were repaired separately, which made the domestic market operate at a high level. Wanhua PM200 price is around 25,000 yuan, and Shanghai goods are around 23,500 yuan.

However, after the Spring Festival, the aggregate MDI market began to decline. Influenced by the impact of low-price imports and the sharp reduction of downstream demand, domestic aggregated MDI prices declined. Especially in June, factories lowered their listing prices one after another, and the market plunged by thousands of miles, reaching a drop of 5000 yuan, which shocked the industry.

In the third quarter of high expectations, aggregated MDI also failed to get out of the good market as expected, and "Golden Nine" was seriously inadequate. In July alone, there was a rebound in the market due to more repaired devices. Since then, in a two-month decline, the market has turned into a buyer's market, and downstream purchases have mostly maintained just in demand, with the market ending in a cold end. At the end of the third quarter, the outgoing price of Shanghai barrel carrying tickets in East China was around 14500 yuan, down 60.3% from the same period last year.

The market remained weak in the fourth quarter. In October, the market was deadlocked and consolidation began under the multi-empty game. Since November, prices have accelerated to decline, and the good repair of individual devices can not save the falling market. By the end of 2018, the market price had run to 11,300-11,500 yuan, and dropped 2,000 yuan in two months.

Throughout the year, although MDI manufacturers bid many times, but the market turnover is light, the seller's market bargaining power is constantly weakened, can only take a price reduction strategy. Therefore, 2018 is considered by the industry to be the most tragic year in the history of aggregation MDI.

Meng Xianxing, Vice President of Shandong Institute of Chemical Industry: Poor demand is the main reason

The sluggish demand is an important factor leading to the year-round decline of the MDI market.

In 2018, the domestic environmental protection storm continued to ferment, the relocation of chemical enterprises was rapidly promoted, the petrochemical industry continued to upgrade and upgrade, and many policies related to environmental protection, rectification, upgrading and relocation of chemical parks were introduced. This makes the upstream and downstream of the polyurethane industry chain have a lot of shocks. In the past, some downstream enterprises with incomplete environmental procedures are facing the punishment measures of deadline rectification or temporary shutdown.

In particular, strict inspection of foaming agent production in various places has further weakened the demand for raw material polymerized MDI. Electric water heater industry has experienced two generations of foaming agent, the first generation is Freon foaming agent, the second generation is 141B foaming agent. At present, the market is dominated by 141B foaming agent. Although it is more environmentally friendly than chlorofluorocarbons, it still has irreversible damage to the ozone layer, so the world is reducing its consumption. At present, domestic manufacturers have developed polyurethane thermal insulation materials to meet the production needs of water heaters, which are used to replace 141B foaming agent, so that the market share of polymer MDI is squeezed.

In addition, the impact of low-cost imports on the domestic market should not be underestimated. These imports mainly come from Japan, Korea and the United States, which increases the pressure of production and marketing in the domestic market.

Moreover, this year's stricter environmental protection policy has seriously affected the downstream refrigerators and thermal insulation infrastructure industry, coupled with the introduction of real estate market regulation policies and trade frictions between China and the United States, making it difficult for the downstream demand of MDI to warm up, trading has remained light, the peak season is not strong, the off-season is even weaker, which makes the MDI industry "injured".

Zhu Ming, Project Manager of Wanhua Chemistry Co., Ltd., New Production Capacity Will Succeed

In the future, there will be more old MDI devices in the world, or the capacity to withdraw from the market. Many enterprises have plans to expand their production. Among them, the 400,000 tons/year MDI project in Cornell, Fujian Province, has attracted considerable attention. It will build 55,000 tons/year formaldehyde and 100,000 tons/year hydrogen chloride treatment plant, which is scheduled to start in October 2019. In addition, it is reported that Cosmic Polymer (China) Co., Ltd. intends to increase the production of the current 500,000 tons/year plant to 600,000 tons/year, and the first phase of the project will be completed by the first half of 2019. Wanhua Chemicals also intends to expand its MDI production capacity to 1.1 million tons per year.

Over the next three years, China's annual MDI capacity will increase from 33.33 million tons to 4.63 million tons, with an average annual growth rate of about 13%. The rapid expansion of MDI capacity is bound to aggravate the current situation of domestic overcapacity. In 2019, the aggregate MDI market is still worrying.

In addition, in 2019, the market pressure of raw material aniline is heavy, and the downstream demand of MDI is affected by environmental protection, economic environment and other factors, which makes it difficult to improve, or will continue to bring negative results to the MDI market.